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Retail, Bitcoin and.. the markets

We can see that retail values bitcoin at 30k , with November’s peak having been institutionally driven. However, even if retail interest actually decreased from 2017 to 2021, the price skyrocketed , without any institutional trading involved . This divergence (D) clearly shows that the main reason why the price rose was the increased scarcity as a result of the halving. Moreover, from 2021 to date institutional trading became evident ,transforming bitcoin in absence of retail interest in a proxy of global stocks. Although we don’t know to what extent and how lower it can go , what we do know is that the institutional trading only made the btc price to double up from 30k to 60k . Hence , once the retail comes back and the markets turn green we can forecast a valuation of 120k per btc + the halving divergence (D) + the physiological growth of institutional trading + the FOMO on the way up . All of this could drive the price above 150k in a green market , with the likelihood to see the downside below 30k reduced , because that price has represented the bottom of the retail interest . A very good reason to hold !

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